Favorites and Sleepers: Nashville

Honda opened the 2025 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season with back-to-back victories on oval tracks. Alex Palou claimed his first career oval win May 25 at the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge, followed by Kyle Kirkwood’s breakthrough victory June 15 at World Wide Technology Raceway.

Christian Rasmussen became the third driver to earn his first oval win this season, capturing victory in last Sunday’s Snap-on Milwaukee Mile 250.

Pato O’Ward and Palou added wins in July at Iowa Speedway.

Last year at Nashville Superspeedway, Andretti Global’s Colton Herta earned his maiden oval victory in the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix presented by WillScot.

Of the nine previous INDYCAR SERIES races held at Nashville Superspeedway, the winners have combined for seven Indianapolis 500 victories and 14 series championships. Only Alex Barron and Herta have won here without going on to achieve either milestone.

Here’s a look at the top drivers to watch in this Sunday’s 225-lap race (2 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One, FOX Sports app, INDYCAR Radio Network).

Favorites

Josef Newgarden (No. 2 Astemo Team Penske Chevrolet)

Newgarden's 2025 oval season has been filled with misfortune: Mechanical failure while running in the top five at the Indy 500 led to a 22nd-place result, followed by a crash while leading at WWTR that wasn’t his fault. He earned a second-place qualifying effort and third-place finish at Nashville last year and enters this race off a seventh-place showing in Milwaukee.

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 DEX Imaging Team Penske Chevrolet)

McLaughlin (photo, above) finished fifth at Nashville in 2024. His oval finishes this season have been inconsistent: 30th, 24th, fourth, 26th, and third, respectively, but he enters with three straight top-10 finishes on the season.

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O’Ward finished second to Herta at Nashville last year. His 2025 oval résumé includes podiums in the Indy 500 (third), WWTR (second) and Iowa-1 (first), plus fifth at Iowa-2 and Milwaukee. He trails only Palou by just 13 points in oval standings.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Dixon (photo, above) placed 17th at Nashville last year but previously dominated the track with three consecutive wins (2006-08). This season, he has four top-10 finishes in five oval starts and ranks fifth in oval points.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Palou finished 11th in his Nashville debut in 2024, while focused on securing the championship. In 2025, he's been stellar on ovals: wins at the Indy 500 and Iowa-2, plus finishes of fifth (Iowa 1), eighth (WWTR) and second (Milwaukee). With the championship clinched and only he and Chip Ganassi Racing teammates Dixon and Kyffin Simpson testing here a few weeks ago, he’s THE favorite.

Sleepers

David Malukas (No. 4 Clarience Technologies Chevrolet)

Malukas finished second in the Indy 500 and led the most laps at WWTR before a late error dropped him to 12th. He also earned a top-five finish at Iowa-2 and placed eighth last week in Milwaukee. He was ninth at Nashville in 2024 and ranks fourth this season in oval points.

Christian Rasmussen (No. 21 ECR Splenda Stevia Chevrolet)

Rasmussen (photo, above) has top-10 finishes in all five oval races this year. He won at Milwaukee, finished sixth in the Indy 500, third at WWTR and posted sixth and eighth at Iowa. He ranks third in oval points (168).

Colton Herta (No. 26 Gainbridge Honda)

Herta (photo, top) is the defending Nashville winner, but it remains his only career oval victory. His 2025 oval finishes of 14th, 17th, 13th, 20th and 11th, respectively, suggest he enters this year’s race as more of a longshot than favorite.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 ROOT Insurance Honda)

This car finished ninth at Nashville last year with Malukas driving. Armstong (photo, above) has stepped up this season driving this machine for Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb-Agajanian. He has four top-10 results in his last five oval starts, including a third-place at Iowa-2. He ranks seventh in oval points.

Conor Daly (No. 76 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet)

Daly qualified sixth and finished 10th at Nashville in 2024. His 2025 oval campaign has been solid: finishes of eighth, sixth, seventh, 16th and 13th. He ranks ninth in oval points this season.

Presented by Tennessee Sounds Perfect